The paradox of 2024 for investors is that the stock market keeps getting more expensive but individual blue chip stocks are getting cheaper. I’d argue this has created a wonderful environment for long-term value investors.
The news has been filled with stories about GameStop and other stocks with high “short” interests being squeezed in recent weeks so there is no point in me rehashing the specifics. There is a lot I could cover about the actual procedure for how trades settle, how short squeezes happen, who is innocent and guilty, and a host of other relevant topics. Enough ink has been spilled, digital and print, that I’m going to focus on the bigger picture, instead. This whole situation is not good.
Market Timing, Valuation, and Systematic Purchases I have a lot of work to do but I’m sitting at my desk, the snow is on the ground outside, I have a fresh cup of coffee in front of me, and I don’t really feel like diving into my task list quite yet. This is going to…
I’ve received a significant number of requests over the past few months asking that I discuss what is happening with oil, natural gas, pipeline, and refining companies; to explain how I look at the situation and the sorts of things Aaron and I discuss when we’re allocating our own capital or the capital of those who have entrusted their assets to us. It’s a big topic with a lot of niche considerations but I want to take some time today to address the oil majors; the handful of mega-capitalization behemoths such as ExxonMobil, Chevron, Royal Dutch Shell, Total, ConocoPhillips / Phillips 66, and BP.
After so many years of investing, interacting with people, and writing about stocks, mutual funds, index funds, and portfolio management, I have five theories that help explain investor behavior.
On August 9th, 1995, the company behind Internet browser Netscape went public, skyrocketing as people fought to get a piece of the so-called “new economy”. It set off a buying panic among the public that lasted five years; otherwise rational men and women convinced that this time really was different, the mania feeding on itself. Anything and…
We’ve talked about the 1929 period a lot lately, but what you need to remember is that it was a walk in the park compared to 1933. It wasn’t until then that everyone had gone broke, given up hope, and sworn off stocks for life, leaving great businesses trading at double-digit dividend yields and a…
For the serious investors among you, I recommended a book about the 1929-1933 crash that is the single best statistical resource on the subject I have ever encountered. After talking about it on the site, I’m going back through the 700+ pages and I really can’t emphasize enough how seeing the effects of the worst…
A week ago, I recommended a now-out of print book from 30 years ago that was an academic study of the Great Depression called The Crash and Its Aftermath. It is, hands down, the most useful statistical survey of the Great Depression and the 1929-1933 period I have ever read. It instantly ranks up there…
The New York Stock Exchange is set to reopen today after having been closed for two consecutive trading days as Hurricane Sandy made landfall on the Eastern seaboard. The last time this happened due to weather was in 1888, when a blizzard shut down the city. It could have been much worse. The lesson: You…
